Wait for RTX 40 series, or better to buy RTX 30 series now?
Welcome back to Techspin, and Nvidia’s rumored scheduled RTX 40 series launch of the 4090 in September, 4080 in October, and November’s 4070 have many people asking, should I wait for the new series? I already had this conversation with several people this week, so let’s dive quickly into this today, and discuss whether you should wait, or pull the trigger on a new graphics card right now. One thing you can do right now is improve your cooling, with our sponsor Noctua.
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RTX 40 Series rumored to start launching Sept. 2022
So with the launch date set for September or possibly even much sooner, should you wait or get a 30 series card now? Apart from the rumored specs and leaks that other much bigger channels have covered, let’s focus on the market pattern right now, and keep in mind that this is speculation, informed by watching GPU pricing over the years- I don’t have insider access.
With previous GPU launches, we’ve seen a roughly 50% increase in performance at the same tier for very little increase in price. Let’s look at a 1080 versus a 2080 and 3080, where the 1080 had an MSRP of 600 us dollars, the 2080 came in at 700 bucks, and the 3080 was supposed to be 700 also, but immediately got jacked by miners and scalpers.
During the cluster duck which also included a silicon shortage thanks to a global pandemic, NVIDIA started releasing Ti models which offered by comparison to their base models, a very small performance boost for a very large price increase, with the 3080Ti MSRP at 1200 dollars. Yes, at that TI card launch, the 3080 was priced much higher, but NVIDIA leaned into the market pricing and decided it needed more profit, and these Ti’s were scalped for outrageous prices.
With the RTX 40 series launch, NVIDIA isn’t talking about die improvements, although surely some small ones have been made. What we have heard is the higher power requirements, and even bigger cooling shrouds. This should just mean that NVIDIA are just packing more cores onto the same die, or we may even see a dual die approach, but basically more along the RTX 30 series line of performance, just more of it.
RTX 40 Series pricing won’t scale linearly
Where the RTX 30 series was a generational leap, offering 40% to 50% improvement over the last gen card at the same launch MSRP, NVIDIA has learned the market can bear quite a lot more. So say the RTX 4080 could deliver somewhere near a 50% improvement over the last gen.
I really doubt that the price will be scaling linearly on this card. Rumored pricing is supposed to be 700 dollars MSRP but I really doubt that, Jensen is likely to launch this card more around the 800 or 900 dollar mark at minimum, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he calls it at 999. NVIDIA will try to maximize profits, maybe even launching this card at 1300 or 1400 dollars. With the 30 series Ti launch, NVIDIA proves it cares about investors and profits, not about making cards affordable for gamers.
NVIDIA has been known to change the price up to the minute of the launch, raising prices and catching AIB partners off guard as they have to scramble to fix their own pricing. And the high end of NVIDIA’s products are drifting higher and higher, so gamers who really want the best right now have to pay more and more.
But now back to reality- we all saw what happened at RTX 30 series launch, where cards sold out immediately. For the RTX 40 series launch, crypto isn’t going to have as much of an impact as that market has fallen a lot, however some miners are still going to upgrade. However, the rampant scalping market will be in full force, so guaranteed they will be all sold out on the first day.
No RTX 40 Series, so Ebay FTW?
So now you’re thinking that maybe you can just wait and pick up a used RTX 30 series on Ebay, but right now we’re still seeing RTX 3080 cards selling for around MSRP although pricing is on a slight downward trend. So the market will get flooded with used GPUs, right? But because crypto is down right now, a lot of miners will be sitting on their cards, not buying new ones, so it won’t be the same as the last release cycle.
In addition the chip shortage is still playing into another factor, manufacturing. The RTX 3080 12G models is rumored to have stopped or reduced production, and NVIDIA is likely now trying to clear out stock because they won’t want a surplus of older cards cheaper than the newer RTX 40 series offerings. So a reduced supply means higher demand for the current RTX 30 series, and right now is likely the best time to get a graphics card, as it’s about as good as it’s going to be for pricing before the launch of the new cards.
In addition, the new RTX 40 series have a much higher power draw, and this generation of GPUs will be the first to really force users to upgrade their power supplies to 850 or 1000 watts, along with the triple PCIe power cable requirement in order to drive these wattage hungry cards, which is an extra expense on top of an already expensive new graphics card. And, not a new concept, many people are already planning to buy out the older 30 series so these will become unavailable really quickly close to the RTX 40 series launch.
A quick note, when connecting PCIe power to a GPU, you should not use two connectors on the same line, for another port. You need separate lines from your PSU, each to its own rail. I’ve already killed a power supply because I forgot the temporary setup and started scrubbing and rendering in Premiere, and after about a month or so, the PC would start abruptly shutting right off, losing all work in progress. It turns out I was hitting one rail with double the load, which led to instability and it couldn’t be used for gaming or editing.
RTX 40 Series- Highest Power Draw Ever
And the RTX 40 series will be the highest power draw cards ever produced, which will require better case cooling. You think your case is getting hot now? Try dumping a rumored 450 watts from your GPU alone. This may force users to get better case fans, fill any vacant spots for fans, and swap to AIO cooling for their CPU to dump heat directly outside.
Some closed off front panel designs, and cases like this Cooler Master Q300L we just covered, link here for the review, had trouble handling just 280 watts from an RTX 3070. So if you have an old school case or a acrylic or glass panel front, you may be looking at a full case upgrade. I know we’ll have to choose a 30 series for the final build here, which may also require a case mod.
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Now is as good as it’s going to get for GPU pricing in 2022
So all these factors play into how much do you want to spend on a new graphics card. If you need a card now, you should grab one now while there’s still decent selection and availability. If you’re waiting for RTX 40 series, you might get lucky but that’s a gamble and a price you’ll need to decide you wanna take.
So this summer is a great time to take advantage of this stabilization in the GPU market, but if you’re already sitting on an older graphics card and want to make the jump to the RTX 40 series, you might be able to get one in time for Christmas if you’re lucky. I’ll throw the link up for a Jayztwocents video where he goes into this with more details and insider knowledge.
AIB vendors really need to step up and pressure retail outlets, including big names like Amazon, to minimize scalping, the effect of these idiots made 2020 so much harder for everyone, from gamers to content creators. EVGA stood out as at least they had a waiting list you could sign up for, but they failed to email me when they were in stock. Guess who lost my purchase?
If you do decide to pick up an RTX 30 series GPU on Amazon and can actually find a good deal, shopping through our affiliate links will help us here with no extra cost to you. And follow us on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook at techspinreview. Next up we’re doing a review of the Gigabyte ultrawide G34WQC, and it’s very promising.
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